Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Ebola Redux Revisited

Long term prospects are not looking good.  It appears that Nina Pham's boyfriend has been hospitalized for symptoms of Ebola. Who else has been exposed?

The thing that puzzles me is why no one is asking the question around why is it taking so many medical personnel to be unsuccessful at preventing the spread of the disease in North America and West Africa?

I and many people like me have called for a travel ban on people leaving West Africa.  I now have statistical support for such a ban. The MOBS LAB has done an analysis on disease migration, comparing a situation with no travel ban to one with an 80% travel ban.  In the comparison, the probability of importation of the virus in the USA falls from 80% (no travel ban) to approximately 35% (80% travel ban).  With a complete travel ban, the probability could fall even more.

While the World Health Organization (WHO) is predicting 20,000 cases and a containment in 9 months, other medical/scientific organizations are saying the outbreak will continue from 12 to 18 months and infect hundreds of thousands.  And that's just in Africa.

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